Bet Both Sides on DraftKings MLB Parlay
This guide will walk you through how to turn the DraftKings MLB Parlay Bet and Get promotion into a guaranteed, risk-free profit by betting both sides.
Overview of the DraftKings MLB Parlay Bet and Get Promotion
DraftKings is running a weeklong MLB Parlay Bet and Get promotion from June 23 – 30. This is a tiered promotion which returns either a profit boost or a free bet.
Both Parlays and Same Game Parlays (SGP) with minimum odds of -200 qualify for the promotion. There is no minimum leg requirement, which is critical for the approaches we outline below since it allows us to build 2-leg parlays which qualify.
How to Bet Both Sides on an MLB Parlay?
Typically betting both sides requires there to be a binary outcome where you can place one bet that something will happen and then place another bet that something won’t happen. This is straightforward when thinking about two money line bets. It becomes much more different when trying to accomplish with parlays. Below are some methods we’ve used to successfully achieve this.
First Inning NFRI/YFRI
It is possible to build a 2-leg No Run First Inning (NRFI) on DraftKings by taking both teams under 0.5 1st innings runs. This can then be paired with over 0.5 1st inning runs aka Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) on a different book to completely hedge the two outcomes.
Setup
DraftKings – Team A under 0.5 1st inning runs and Team B under 0.5 1st inning runs
Book 1 – Over 0.5 1st inning runs
Money Lines from Two Different Games
A more complicated approach is to use three different books to bet both sides using money lines from two different games. There are three different outcomes which this creates: Team A wins in both games (we’re arbitrary assigning Team A for this example), Team A wins in game 1 but Team B wins in Game 2, and Team B wins in game 1. With this setup no matter the outcome of either game, you’re guaranteed one of the three bets will win.
Setup
DraftKings – Team A Game 1 and Team A Game 2
Book 1 – Team A Game 1 and Team B Game 2
Book 2 – Team B Game 1
Money Lines and Exact Score
Like example above, this requires placing bets on three different books but utilizes the SGP function to create three outcomes: the favorite winning and score more than 1 run, the underdog winning, and the favorite winning exactly 1-0.
Setup
DraftKings – Team A to win and Team A over 1.5 runs
Book 1 – Team B to win
Book 2 – Team A to win 1-0
How Much is this Promotion Worth?
There are two different versions of this MLB SGP bet and get promotion – one gives a free bet and the other gives profit boost. We’ll walk through how much value you can get from the free bet and the profit boost.
How to Value the Free Bet?
There’s a simple rule of thumb we use when valuing a free bet – a free bet is valued at 70% of the free bet amount, which assumes a 70% free bet conversion. Therefore, we can take the free bet value * 70% and determine how much profit we should be able to capture by converting the free bet.
In this promotion the highest tier returns a $1,000 free bet which should have a converted value of $700.
How to Value the Profit Boost?
When valuing a profit boost, you need to consider two things:
- How much is the boost?
- What is the max bet per the boost?
Using those two inputs, you can approximate how much the boost should be worth. In the case of this promotions, the boost is a 100% boost with a $50 max bet.
To get a rough sense of how much that is worth, we can use the Profit Boost bet finder on DarkHorse Odds. We can defined the Sportsbook, profit boost percentage, and the Max Bet amount. At the time of writing, we can use each boost for a $40-30 profit.
Read our detailed review to learn more about what DarkHorse Odds has to offer.
Since the top tier contains 10 100% profit boosts, we can say the total value of the profit boost pack is worth ~$300.
How Much Profit Can Be Made From This Promotion?
To maximize the value of the promo, it is worth shooting for the top tier whether you received the profit boost or free bet version of the promo.
You can estimate the total profit by assuming a total cost of hedging. You can find favorable lines that will cost $15-50 per $500 wagered to hedge using any of the methods above.
For the profit boost pack you need to wager $1,500 which would cost ~$150 and leave you with $150 in profit.
For the free bet you need to wager $2,500 which would cost ~$250 and leave you with $450 in profit.
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